Posted it themselves Aug 5
“president trump’s announcements notwithstanding, i see no circumstance where the united states is able to control the strait of hormuz. i’d love to be proven wrong about this.”
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Posted it themselves Aug 4
“the real red lines aren’t iranian military targets. they’re gulf energy infrastructure. desalination plants. airports. that’s what’s keeping trump from escalating. @gzeromedia”
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Posted it themselves Aug 4
“trump doesn’t want to escalate. iran knows it. the single biggest source of leverage tehran has right now. @gzeromedia”
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Posted it themselves Aug 4
“iranian leaders surely convinced at this point that president trump really (really really) doesn’t want to further escalate the war.”
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Posted it themselves Aug 1
“the danger of targeting iran’s energy/critical infrastructure is that the united states cannot adequately defend gulf infrastructure in return when the iranians strike it (and they will).”
on risks of US strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure
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Posted it themselves Jul 31
“iranians are paying the greatest cost of the ongoing war… thousands killed by their own regime in january, thousands more killed in this war, and a new supreme leader just as capable and willing to repress his own people… under even worse economic conditions taking stock six months into this war with @tedtalks”
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Posted it themselves Jul 29
“perspective: if iran’s closure of the strait of hormuz is the largest oil supply move in history (13 million barrels per day), china’s import reduction is the second largest (5 million).”
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Posted it themselves Jul 28
“the houthis aren't just doing iran's bidding. they're pursuing their own negotiations, their own leverage, and their own war. @gzeromedia”
on the Houthis acting on their own agenda rather than just Iran's
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Posted it themselves Jul 28
“trump is betting economic pain will force iran to back down. tehran is betting the us won't tolerate the costs. @gzeromedia”
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Posted it themselves Jul 28
“talks with iran no more likely to succeed this week than before the latest round of us bombings. president trump still unwilling to compromise on control of the strait. not much change here until the costs go up.”
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Posted it themselves Jul 25
“or else... or else... or else... the iranians - correctly - see through empty us threats. the unwillingness to follow through on those threats is keeping a lid on how bad this war could get. but it also makes it more likely we'll continue to see major disruptions.”
on U.S. lack of follow-through on Iran threats risks escalation
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Posted it themselves Jul 24
“as of now, houthis are not trying to completely shut down bab el-mandeb. threats only directed at ships transiting saudi ports. fair amount of traffic is otherwise still moving through the strait.”
on Houthi blockade tactics and shipping movements
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Posted it themselves Jul 24
“zero saudi-linked tankers transiting bab el-mandeb since houthi blockade announcement. no houthi attacks to date…but a lot of caution.”
on Saudi tanker movements following Houthi blockade announcement
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